Much of the country was in turmoil over the surprising results released at the election’s end. Trump, with a victory over the Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton, surprised much of society, pollsters, media, and even the markets. It is too early to tell what impact the Trump administration will have on the economy, but the stock markets, after shaking off an initial poor reaction, are rising on speculation that better times might be ahead for the economy, or at least for corporate profits. The impacts on the stock markets might seem peculiar given the negative pre-election comments most economists made about Trump’s policies and his likely negative impact on the economy. The economy is incredibly complicated and vast and no economist can completely predict the future, but there are two simple indicators of the health of the economy: the value of the US dollar compared to the peso and the general performance of the US stock market.

Perhaps the most staggering immediate effect of the election was the precipitous fall of the Mexican Peso exchange rate with the US dollar, which may have more to say about what investors predict will happen to the Mexican economy than about what might happen to the US economy. Relationships with our southern neighbor were discussed often along the campaign trail, whether about building a wall, canceling NAFTA, or deporting millions of undocumented Mexican immigrants. It can certainly be expected that the election will have some effect on Mexico’s economy and currency. According to published trends, the behavior of the peso appeared to be independent of political activities until after the primaries ended. At this time, the peso began to reflect trends in the published polls, with Trump’s moments of popularity reflecting poorly in the value of the peso. On the other hand, as Hillary rose in the polls, so did the peso. On November 8 when the election results became clear, the peso’s rise quickly changed direction and dropped at a record-setting rate to a historical low of 21 pesos to one US dollar as compared to 18 pesos as before the primaries back in January. The exchange rates between two currencies is mercurial, at best, but is a leading indicator of market sentiment of any two economies. Since the election, the US dollar has improved against most major currencies. The market seems to indicate that the US might have stronger days ahead. For those considering traveling, this could be a good chance to exchange for foreign currency.

A contrasting effect of the election can be seen in the recent performance of the US stock market. One of the major indexes used to determine the performance of US stocks is the Standard & Poor’s 500 index. The S&P 500 measures the performance of 500 large companies traded on the NY and NASDAQ stock exchanges, comprising of companies from all major industries of the US economy. The immediate results of the election gave the S&P a slight drop; however, it leveled off and actually increased 4% above pre-election values. The upward trend has continued in the S&P 500 as well as in many other market indexes for the United States. Investors are betting that a Trump administration will improve the profitability of these companies and the economy, at least in the near term.

Overall, the stock market has been performing well since the election of Donald Trump, although many economists have said the true effects of the Trump administration will be revealed over time. The peso has recovered some of its lost value as president-elect Donald Trump has seemed to soften his position on many of the policies he supported as a candidate. No matter what one might think of Donald Trump, as a person or a candidate, the economy can take a different view. Infrastructure spending could spur the economy and lay the groundwork for improved economic performance for many years to come, as public works did in the 1930s and the Interstate Highway system did in the early 1960s. Trade protectionism can create short-term gains for domestic companies, but it’s clear from history that those gains are usually short-lived as the forces of competition eventually catch up. Many current seniors will be entering the job market after four years of college and four years of President-elect Trump, so whether or not you support Trump, intriguing times are ahead.